Nathaniel J. Baskin
“Categorizing is necessary for humans, but it becomes pathological when the category is seen as definitive, preventing people from considering the fuzziness of boundaries”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Part of being human involves having a mind that weaves stories and narratives to make sense of our experiences. Most of the time, this is for our own sense of security and wellbeing. When we hear stories of burglary in our communities, for instance, we learn to lock the doors to our homes to secure our belongings. But what are we supposed to do when unlikely events arise that we can’t explain? We may work hard at our job and receive positive feedback from our mentors, only to be laid off unexpectedly when the company takes a sudden pivot. Perhaps in this situation there were warning signs that went overlooked, but not necessarily. Tempting as it may be to rationalize away the unexpected through hindsight, uncertainty is a certainty of life. When confronting our own illusions, it’s important to understand how our pre-existing beliefs and biases limit our ability to see reality as it truly is, and to embrace surprises as an opportunity to expand our understanding.
Over time, the stories we tell ourselves most often become deeply ingrained into our core belief systems. These narratives have the power to shape our perceptions of ourselves, of others, and of the world we live in. While reality is not entirely within our control, it’s important to remember the degree of choice that we do have in how we interpret our observations, and how our choices influence outcomes.
Let’s look at the example of Jessica, a hair stylist who has been dreaming for years of opening up her own salon, but who has been struggling to overcome early obstacles. Challenges and failures are an inevitable part of any entrepreneurial journey, and Jessica’s goals have been no exception. Initially, she would get extremely discouraged when she couldn’t land enough clients to go solo, and would assume that her business ambitions were unattainable for her as an introvert. Over time, however, Jessica came to realize that these beliefs were nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy that limited her ability to seize opportunities, gain new experience, and learn from failure. While starting a business can be daunting for anyone, there are plenty of examples of success that are perfectly realistic with enough time and persistence. How many of our own limitations are built on our beliefs about reality, instead of reality itself?
When we become too comfortable in a fixed set of beliefs, our perception of the facts can grow distorted through the lens of confirmation bias. When this happens, we may only seek out or register information that confirms our existing beliefs, and become dismissive of the datapoints that fall outside of our closed box. Like the decision to lock our homes to avoid being robbed, confirmation bias is a defense mechanism that arises from feeling threatened. In order to open up, we must first feel secure in our ability to respond and adapt to any surprises we may encounter from the outside.
To better understand confirmation bias in action, let’s look at the example of Jim. As a third generation farmer who values a more quiet and private lifestyle, Jim has grown fearful in recent years of the influence of tech giants and mainstream news outlets. His anxieties have been further compounded by economic stressors and declining income. As a consequence, Jim has been turning to fringe websites and forums for information that confirm his worst suspicions. Dubious of being fed any content he perceives to be corrupt propaganda, he keeps to his bubble and cuts himself off from external discourse that could offer more constructive solutions. Over time, Jim’s vulnerability to confirmation bias leads him to grow more entrenched in paranoia and conspiracy theories. While his initial anxieties were grounded in real stressors, the rigidity of Jim’s perspective hinders him from adapting to changing circumstances with more confidence. In order to avoid falling into the bubble of confirmation bias, we need to actively challenge our existing beliefs, entertain conflicting perspectives, and remain open to surprises.
In contrast to confirmation bias, bursting our own bubble involves opening our beliefs to challenges and allowing ourselves to admit when we’re wrong. When it comes to perspectives that have given us a sense of security for a long time, this process can be extremely uncomfortable, but is vital for mental strength and intellectual growth. By continually letting go of our illusions, we are better equipped to level up our understanding of the world and expand our confidence in our own beliefs.
Devon always assumed that building an app required a degree in a technical field like computer science, or extensive experience as a developer for an established company. Despite having an interest in tech, they didn’t put much thought into exploring it further under the belief that they didn’t have the background to go very far. One day after work, Devon stumbled upon an online course on app development for beginners. Despite their initial doubts, the course was free so they decided to give it a shot. The content turned out to be much more straightforward than expected, and Devon was surprised to discover an innate intuition for coding. After powering through the available tutorials, they spent the next several months on their own app for exchanging old devices within their community. Proud of the prototype they had developed, Devon had a new sense of confidence and was eager to share their results with friends. Had they clung to their old assumptions and dismissed online courses without trying, Devon may have never seized the opportunity to carve out a new path in coding.
Random surprises are a part of life and happen all around us every day. If we choose to ignore what we don’t understand and hold stagnant in our beliefs, we potentially set ourselves up for a rude awakening down the road when the world has moved on without us. Alternatively, we could choose to embrace the unknown, leverage the unexpected to spark curiosity, and carve out bold new paths along the edges of the world as we know it. The key to growth is to take responsibility for the stories we tell ourselves, challenge our confirmation bias when it holds us back, and burst out of our bubble when we’re ready for something new. At the end of the day, luck favors the prepared. What do you choose to notice? 🫧